Forum Research is one of the most recognized
names in the world of polling and market research in Canada. Few firms have the
ability to pump out an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) poll with a decent
sample size and get an A1 over the fold in less than 24 hours. When I was at
the Ontario Legislature, a number of my former colleagues would wince
at even hearing the name Forum Research. They weren’t the only ones,
however; many believe that the frequency and tabloid-like nature of Forum
Research's publications actually hurts Canadian democracy and negatively
affects the public's view on public opinion polling at large. Torontoist Magazine best illustrated this through their political
cartoon found here.
Forum
Research should not be seen as the villain in this story, however. On the
contrary, they are merely a product of their environment. Polling in today's
economy is very difficult. There is a plethora of polling and market research
firms all competing to hear from a population that is getting harder to
reach every year. Low response rates and significant decreases in the use
of landlines are just a few of the realities that a pollster today has to deal
with that their predecessors did not have to.
In
order to generate business and distinguish themselves in the industry, some
firms conduct a study or poll and simply give the results (or at least the
top-line results) to a friendly media outlet at no charge. Why does this happen? Media outlets don't have the money they once
did to pay for public opinion polls. Polling is expensive no matter how you
slice it and declining sales and readership over the years have seriously
affected how much media outlets are willing or able to pay for this kind of
data. By providing public opinion data for free (or at very minimal cost),
polling firms have become marketers first and pollsters second.
Polling firms seem to promote their companies
as a brand as opposed to promoting the information they produce. When large or reputable media outlets publish
opinion polls, the firm conducting the poll gets earned media and publicity,
thus increasing their visibility and potential for future business. However, when fewer outlets can afford polling
data, pollsters
and media outlets ‘race-to-the-bottom’ in an attempt to mutually promote each
other’s products and services in the best way they can under the circumstances –
and it’s the Canadian public that ends up losing.
I don't think the public should point fingers
at Forum Research for their business model. It’s in the best interest of all
pollsters, regardless of what firm they work for or what political party they
are affiliated with, to be ‘correct’ or 'accurate' in their representation of
what the public thinks. What I think critics of Forum Research or polling in
general should focus on, however, is the manner in which public opinion data is
digested and regurgitated by the media.
The evolution in how the media
covers politics and public affairs over the years has created a dependency
on horse-race polling or the idea that there is always an election no matter
the status of the legislature or how far out the election actually is. By focusing on the top line numbers of a poll and
not the specifics within it, media outlets do the public an injustice. Intentional
or not, this practice creates a less informed electorate even though outlets may actually
believe that they are informing them. This also leads me to believe that media
outlets are more in the business of creating
the news than reporting the news.
It
is possible that the media has a real dependency on polling to sell papers or generate
website traffic – and polling firms need to get that A1 over the fold to get
noticed. These two players are both in a bind, and we as Canadians should
understand what this relationship means to the discussion and evolution of
ideas and policy.
Many journalists do not know how to critically
examine public opinion polls and even if they did have that knowledge,
editorial staff do not believe that this knowledge is relevant to the narrative
that the paper is trying to sell. Journalists have frequent and tight
deadlines, and when a press release crosses their desk with only so much as a basic
explanation of what the numbers say or mean, the report of what the public actually thinks begins to suffer.
I'm not
painting all journalists with the same brush – on the contrary, there are a
number of former journalists in Canada who have gone on to become successful pollsters.
However, it is important when a journalist writes an article and references a
poll to inform their readers why they were given this poll, if they had to pay
for it, the methodology behind the poll - besides the margin of error, and why
they chose to use this poll in their article.
Polling may not be a science like chemistry or
physics, but there is a lot of methodological and statistical rigor that goes
into polling. Forum Research is just one of many trying to make a buck in a
very tough and competitive environment. The polling industry today is making a
serious effort to ensure that firms and researchers disclose their methods as
best as possible and to be transparent with their findings. Media outlets
should follow and move away from superfluous horse-race coverage simply to
sell papers and switch their focus to explaining why a certain poll they
chose to work with is valid or significant. When media outlets increase their focus on the mechanics
of polling the Canadian public stands a greater chance of being informed.
